Home News South Yorkshire could enter Tier 3 TODAY after 'successful' talks

South Yorkshire could enter Tier 3 TODAY after 'successful' talks


Boris Johnson could declare that South Yorkshire is being upgraded to Tier Three as early as today after Greater Manchester was forced into the brutal lockdown.

Ministers revealed an announcement will be made ‘shortly’ after ‘very successful’ discussions with local leaders overnight, while talks with the rest of the county and Nottinghamshire are still ongoing. 

The latest dramatic move comes amid a furious blame game between the PM and Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham over failed negotiations on a bailout.

After more than a week of wrangling, Mr Johnson unilaterally shifted the region to the highest level of curbs last night, saying Mr Burnham had rejected an offer of £60million business support, on top of £22million for contact tracing and enforcement.

Whitehall sources said an agreement of £55million was initally reached, but during a final telephone to rubber-stamp the arrangement Mr Burnham blindsided the Prime Minister with a demand for £65million.

The PM tried to compromise on £60million but a government source said: ‘Andy Burnham’s pride got in the way of a deal.’

Another source claimed the mayor had told the PM it was ‘important to him that he got more than Lancashire and Merseyside’, the other two areas already under Tier Three.

Ministers have insisted the £60million package is still on the table, but Mr Burnham will need to back down in order to accept the cash. 

Last night six Conservative MPs in the region wrote to Mr Burnham asking to stand aside so other local leaders to broker a new deal with the government.

Chris Clarkson, Mark Logan, Christian Wakeford, James Grundy, Jame Daly and Mary Robinson all put their name to the note telling Mr Burnham he had ‘completely failed’.

In a round of interviews this morning, Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick also dismissed the idea that Mr Burnham learned news of the package during an explosive press conference last night. “He didn’t,” he said, adding: “I phoned him and told him.”

Mr Jenrick also swiped that the haggling with Mr Burnham had held up crucial action to protect the public. ‘We probably in honesty should have acted a few days ago but we hadn’t been able to reach an agreement with the mayor of Greater Manchester,’ he said.

By contrast Mr Jenrick said ‘very productive’ conversations had taken place with the mayor of Sheffield Dan Jarvis.

‘Those discussions are coming to a conclusion this morning, I hope,’ he said.   

In other coronavirus developments:

  • England’s deputy chief medical officer Professor Jonathan Van-Tam slapped down calls for a nationwide ‘circuit-breaker’ lockdown;
  • Red Wall Tories joined the Northern fury at the Prime Minister’s ‘insane’ move to force Manchester into a Tier 3 lockdown; 
  • Sage scientists warn that children could become the ‘lost generation’ as pandemic policies take their toll on youngsters; 
  • The UK recorded another 21,331 coronavirus cases, a 23.8 per cent increase on last Tuesday, and 241 more deaths, compared to 143 on the same day last week; 
  • ONS figures show the number of people dying of Covid-19 in England and Wales rose for the fifth week in a row to 438 between October 3 and 9; 
Andy Burnham

Boris Johnson

A furious blame game has erupted after Tier 3 talks between Downing Street and Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham collapsed, with both sides accusing the other of walking away 

Boris Johnson announced that he is imposing Tier Three coronavirus restrictions on the Greater Manchester region despite failing to reach an agreement with local political leaders

Boris Johnson announced that he is imposing Tier Three coronavirus restrictions on the Greater Manchester region despite failing to reach an agreement with local political leaders

How the war of words between Burnham and No 10 unfolded 

October 14: The three-tier system is introduced in England. Andy Burnham instantly brands it ‘fundamentally flawed’ and threatens legal action if imposed by Government. 

October 15: Mr Burnham accuses the Government of treating the North with ‘contempt’ as a row erupts over proposed coronavirus lockdown restrictions in the area. 

October 16: Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab accuses Mr Burnham of trying to ‘hold the Government over a barrel’ by resisting tougher restrictions and urges him to ‘do the right thing by the people of Manchester’.

The Prime Minister urges leaders in Greater Manchester to ‘reconsider and engage constructively’ over Tier 3 restrictions but says he will intervene if an agreement cannot be reached. 

October 17: Mr Burnham said no meetings had taken place since Thursday morning and urged in a joint statement with council leaders that ‘we are ready to meet at any time’.

Downing Street on Saturday indicated a call had been scheduled for the following morning after a message was left with Mr Burnham.

October 18: Mr Burnham accused the Prime Minister of having engaged in an ‘exaggeration’ of the severity of Covid-19 in the region during a Downing Street press conference. 

Senior minister Michael Gove said: ‘Instead of press conferences and posturing, what we need is action to save people’s lives.’

October 19: Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick warned local leaders they had until midday the following day to strike a deal with Government. 

October 20: Figures in London and Manchester continued to talk even after the noon deadline for negotiations had passed. 

Mr Burnham civic leaders were prepared to reduce their bid for financial support from £90million to £65 million – a figure he described as the ‘bare minimum to prevent a winter of real hardship’. 

At a 5pm press conference no deal had been reached and the PM announced he would be unilaterally imposing Tier 3 on the region.

Mr Burnham set fire to the row last night by calling a press conference to accuse Mr Johnson of ‘playing poker with people’s lives’ and ‘walking away’ rather than finding the extra £5million. 

When a noon deadline yesterday passed with both sides still refusing to give ground, the PM carried out his threat to unilaterally plunge Greater Manchester into the toughest lockdown. 

At midnight on Thursday the region will be elevated to the very high coronavirus alert level, meaning pubs must shut unless they serve meals, along with betting shops, casinos, bingo halls, gaming centres and soft play areas.  

The Tier 3 measures imposed on the region’s 2.8million people could lead to the closure of an estimated 1,800 pubs and 140 wine bars as well as 277 betting shops and 12 casinos.  

The region will receive a standard £22million to bolster test and trace infrastructure, but it is feared vulnerable businesses will struggle to stay afloat without urgent support.

It has also emerged other northern cities, including Leeds, could be next to follow Manchester and Liverpool into Tier 3 restrictions. 

Health Secretary Matt Hancock last night said the ‘door remains open’ for negotiations, suggesting the Government’s £60million offer is still on the table. 

 

The Prime Minister said he had been left with no choice but to impose the closure of pubs, bars and restaurants as well as banning households from mixing indoors and in most outdoor settings after the Government was unable to reach a deal with local leaders in Manchester.

Mr Johnson said he appreciated the rules are ‘tough, both on businesses and individuals’ but that the move to the Very High alert level is needed in order to combat a surge in coronavirus cases in the region.   

He added he regretted the fact the Government had been unable to strike a deal with Mr Burnham because ‘we would have a better chance of defeating the virus if we work together’. 

Mr Johnson said ‘unfortunately’ Mr Burnham opted not to accept the deal as he added: ‘Given the public health situation, I must now proceed with moving Greater Manchester, as I say, to the Very High alert level because not to act would put Manchester’s NHS, and the lives of many of Manchester’s residents, at risk.’  

Mr Johnson’s comments came after Mr Burnham effectively declared class war on the Prime Minister for dooming Greater Manchester to lockdown ‘poverty’ by refusing to hand over a ‘bare minimum’ £65million bailout.

At his own press conference earlier this afternoon, the mayor had launched a furious tirade at the Government for imposing the harshest level of curbs without ‘proper support’, saying he had asked for what the region ‘needed’.

Painting himself as the champion of the northern working class, Mr Burnham said: ‘It wasn’t about what we wanted, it was about what we needed… what we have seen today is a deliberate act of levelling down.’     

Despite slamming ‘penny pinching’ ministers, Mr Burnham told people in Greater Manchester to ‘observe the law at all times’. 

He added: ‘At no point today were we offered enough to protect the poorest people in our communities through the punishing reality of the winter to come.

‘Even now, I am still willing to do a deal but it cannot be on the terms that the Government offered today.’

Mr Burnham had taken aim at ‘selective’ figures highlighted by Downing Street that suggested Greater Manchester hospitals could be overwhelmed within weeks unless tougher action is taken. He insisted intensive care bed occupancy was about normal for this time of year, at 80 per cent. 

Mr Johnson told the press conference that he hoped leaders in Greater Manchester will now work with the Government to ensure the new restrictions are rolled out.

He also said the Government remained in negotiations with local authorities in a number of other areas about moving to 3. 

‘Despite the failure to reach an agreement, I hope the Mayor and council leaders in Greater Manchester will now work with us to implement these measures,’ he said. 

‘Elsewhere, discussions on moving to the Very High alert level continue with local leaders in South Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, Nottinghamshire and the North East.

‘I hope and expect central and local government will continue to work closely together, as we are seeing in Merseyside, Lancashire, London and many other parts of the country.

‘Because – ultimately – all of us want to protect the NHS, and in doing so to save lives.’  

Scotland Yard urges pubs and restaurants snoop on customers by asking for photo IDs 

Police have urged pubs and restaurants to snoop on customers to ensure they stick to lockdown rules, the Mail can reveal today.

Scotland Yard has been writing to struggling traders in London to say they should ask for names, addresses and even photo ID.

Officers said the procedures would stop households mixing – in keeping with Tier Two curbs introduced last weekend.

However business chiefs said this placed ‘completely unacceptable’ demands on staff and would cost venues bookings if customers could not prove they were following the Covid-19 restrictions.

The Night Time Industries Association has taken legal advice over the ‘unlawful and misleading advice’.

Police forces around the country are checking on Facebook and other social media sites to see whether landlords are letting customers flout social distancing rules. 

The row came as Boris Johnson faced a revolt after ordering Greater Manchester into the toughest level of lockdown restrictions.

Greater Manchester’s Labour MPs lined up to blast Mr Johnson for the failed talks.

Labour’s Manchester Central MP Lucy Powell said it was ‘utter spite’ and ‘the idea of ‘all in this together’ has been totally shattered this week’.

Wigan MP and shadow foreign secretary Lisa Nandy said: ‘This is bad faith, it’s immoral – just disgraceful.’

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said the collapse of talks between Greater Manchester and Westminster was ‘a sign of Government failure’.

‘The Conservatives have been treating local communities, particularly in the Midlands, North West and North East, and their leaders with contempt.

‘Labour recognise the need for stricter public health restrictions. However, that must be accompanied by extra financial support.

‘Labour will continue to support Andy Burnham in the fight for people’s jobs, lives and livelihoods.’ 

William Wragg, Tory MP for Hazel Grove in Greater Manchester, said on Twitter: ‘The sense of failure is overwhelming.

‘I shall avoid political comment until I have heard @MattHancock’s statement in @HouseofCommons this evening.

‘Leadership is required from everybody. Trust is placed in us all and that is the privilege of public office.’ 

Mr Burnham earlier railed at the ‘provocative’ noon ultimatum from the government, which came after a week of bitter wrangling over money.

However, in a grim warning, he said: ‘I would predict everybody will end up in Tier 3 at some point during the winter – what we need is a fair financial framework for Tier 3.’ 

The PM’s spokesman revealed that Mr Johnson would be holding a press conference at 5pm alongside NHS medical director Stephen Powis and deputy chief medical officer Jonathan Van-Tam. 

Talks are continuing with the North West, the North East and Yorkshire and Humber about further coronavirus restrictions.

‘That is part of the effort that we are making to create the maximum possible consensus behind the more strict kinds of local intervention,’ the Prime Minister’s official spokesman said.

Mr Johnson told Cabinet this morning that a package had already been ‘successfully agreed’ with Liverpool City Region and Lancashire on Tier Three.

He told ministers they were ‘seeking to work constructively’ with local leaders. 

But he raised concerns that ‘cases continue to be extremely high across the region’, and the ‘most worrying rises’ were among the over-60s.

‘The PM said the stark reality is that there are now more COVID-19 patients in Greater Manchester Hospitals than in the whole of the South West and South East combined, and the number of COVID patients will exceed the numbers from the first peak in April in 2 to 3 weeks,’ the spokesman said. 

In a round of interviews this morning, Mr Burnham criticised the late-night statement from Local Government Secretary Robert Jenrick laying down the noon ultimatum.

The mayor – who has been demanding support equivalent to the 80 per cent wages furlough scheme for those hit by the lockdown – claimed Greater Manchester leaders had ‘never been given a figure’ for how much funding they would get. And he said they must have carte blanche on how the money is spent.

The daily number of coronavirus cases, counted by the date specimens were taken, has eased in key cities over recent days

The daily number of coronavirus cases, counted by the date specimens were taken, has eased in key cities over recent days 

Mr Burnham (pictured at a press conference yesterday) demanded £65million in business support and there was no breakthrough in the row

Mr Burnham (pictured at a press conference yesterday) demanded £65million in business support and there was no breakthrough in the row

Boris Johnson (left) gathered his Cabinet this morning as the coronavirus crisis continues

Boris Johnson (left) gathered his Cabinet this morning as the coronavirus crisis continues

Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance were at the Cabinet meeting in the Foreign Office this morning

Official data shows the rolling seven day average of coronavirus cases in Greater Manchester has been falling in recent days

Official data shows the rolling seven day average of coronavirus cases in Greater Manchester has been falling in recent days

The graph on the left shows how many Covid-19 deaths (blue dots) have been recorded across Manchester’s NHS trusts every day since the pandemic began. The three dotted lines are projections based on previous modelling from health bosses, leaked to The Guardian, which show how deaths could have sped up under different scenarios. The newspaper did not reveal what the different lines stood for but it is likely the steepest would have shown how quickly deaths would have spiralled under the worst-case scenario. The graph on the right shows the same but for how many infected patients were in intensive care. Red dots show the actual number of coronavirus patients receiving mechanical ventilation on any given day, while the three dotted lines show projections for how the numbers could grow under different growth speeds

The graph on the left shows how many Covid-19 deaths (blue dots) have been recorded across Manchester’s NHS trusts every day since the pandemic began. The three dotted lines are projections based on previous modelling from health bosses, leaked to The Guardian, which show how deaths could have sped up under different scenarios. The newspaper did not reveal what the different lines stood for but it is likely the steepest would have shown how quickly deaths would have spiralled under the worst-case scenario. The graph on the right shows the same but for how many infected patients were in intensive care. Red dots show the actual number of coronavirus patients receiving mechanical ventilation on any given day, while the three dotted lines show projections for how the numbers could grow under different growth speeds

North East fury at suggestions they could be next into Tier Three 

Tees Valley and North East leaders have reacted with fury after suggestions they could be upgraded to Tier Three lockdown.

Talks over entering the top bracket are ongoing with South Yorkshire, Nottinghamshire and West Yorkshire, although announcements are not expected today.

But there was a storm of protest after Matt Hancock suggested last night the North East and Tees Valley were also on the brink. 

 Hartlepool’s independent council leader swiping that ministers could ‘s** off’. 

And Tory Tees Valley mayor Ben Houchem said: ‘I spoke to Matt Hancock’s team and I was pleased that they confirmed what local leaders were told on Friday – that there are NO imminent plans to move our area to tier 3.’ 

‘What I’ll be proposing to the Greater Manchester leaders when we meet this morning, quite early, is that we write to the Government setting out what we think a fair figure is for that support, given we’ve been under restrictions for three months and that has taken a real toll on people and businesses here,’ Mr Burnham said.

‘The second thing we would need is full flexibility to support the people that we think are going to need to be supported in a Tier 3 lockdown.’  

Mr Burnham said: ‘I don’t think the government should be enforcing or dictating in this way. We need to work together as a country and I have been offering to work with the government all year.

‘Greater Manchester needs to establish a fair financial framework for Tier Three, because there is a chance all parts of England will come under Tier Three at some point over the winter and if the terms aren’t right we are going to see real damage to people’s lives right across the country.

‘This is an issue for everyone and is not just about taking a stand for Greater Manchester.’ 

Ministers gave Manchester leaders until noon Tuesday to reach an agreement on the city entering Tier 3 coronavirus lockdown, and say the government will ‘intervene’ if local leaders do not agree to impose the economy-crippling restrictions by the deadline. 

Up to 10million people now face living under the toughest measures this week after talks on whether the region should enter the ‘very high risk’ Tier 3 ended in deadlock again yesterday. 

In a statement released Monday night, Mr Jenrick said that he had written to local leaders giving them until midday Tuesday to reach an agreement on the introduction of Tier 3 curbs – and if they do not the Prime Minister will be forced to ‘intervene’. 

But Mr Burnham and local MPs have accused the government and Health Secretary Matt Hancock’s department of dubious use of ‘selective statistics’ to spread fear and panic about the NHS being overrun

Lucy Powell, Labour MP for Manchester Central, blasted the Government’s panic tactics, describing its attempts to ‘spin hospital data’ as ‘counter-productive and unhelpful’.  

But business minister Nadhim Zahawi repeated the claim this morning.

Mr Zahawi told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: ‘We have been negotiating in good faith for 10 days with Andy Burnham and other local leaders in Greater Manchester.

‘By the first week of November, if the trajectory continues at the rate it is at the moment, they will run out of ICU capacity in Greater Manchester.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak intervenes at the Cabinet meeting this morning, where coronavirus lockdowns were discussed

Chancellor Rishi Sunak intervenes at the Cabinet meeting this morning, where coronavirus lockdowns were discussed

Britain recorded 18,804 Covid-19 cases and 80 deaths yesterday as infections and fatalities rise

Manchester city mayor calls for ‘shielding’ plan 

The Manchester city mayor has called for a ‘shielding’ approach to coronavirus rather than shutting down the economy. 

Sir Richard Leese said most people who test positive for the virus ‘are not getting particularly ill’ but the problem was too many now getting ill and increasing hospital admissions and numbers in intensive care.

He said the Government’s ‘blanket business closure policy’ is questionable and instead suggested a shielding programme for those most at risk would work better.

‘Most people who test positive for the virus are not getting particularly ill,’ Sir Richard said in a blog post.

‘They are not the problem. Too many are now getting ill and the number of hospital cases is going up, as is the number of people with Covid in intensive care.

‘That’s the problem.’

He said medics now know the most at risk of hospital admissions: older people and people with existing underlying conditions, diabetes, obesity, high-blood pressure, other respiratory illnesses.

He added: ‘If this is the evidence, wouldn’t it be much better to have an effective shielding programme for those most at risk, rather than have a blanket business closure policy of dubious efficacy.

‘Sadly, Government, having forced through badly thought regulations, seem unwilling to think again.’ 

The idea was backed by local Tory MPs. James Daly, the Tory MP for Bury North, said he was ‘extremely sympathetic’ to Sir Richard’s proposal.

Chris Green, the Tory MP for Bolton West, said: ‘I think this is a good direction of travel. Let’s keep our hospitality running up to Christmas and support people at home if they are deemed vulnerable.’

William Wragg, the Tory MP for Hazel Grove, said: ‘I think Richard Leese’s proposal has merit and should be properly considered.’ 

Sir Graham Brady, MP for Altrincham and Sale West and chair of the powerful Tory 1922 committee, said: ‘The fundamental point about Tier 3 is the proposals don’t appear to have any evidential basis. 

‘That is something we should both focus on, set politics aside.’

Mr Zahawi said £22million has been offered to Greater Manchester to boost contact tracing, and made clear that more was on the table. 

‘We have said to Andy and other local leaders that we will put £22 million into help for Greater Manchester, £8 per capita,’ he said.

There would also be ‘additional support commensurate with what we have done in Liverpool City Region and in Lancashire’.

Mr Burnham said the government was trying to respond to the pandemic ‘on the cheap’.

‘It does appear there’s been an abrupt change since the summer, where it’s the opposite now,’ he said.

‘We’re trying to respond to a pandemic on the cheap, that’s how it feels.

‘It’s particularly relevant isn’t it when you then come to a regional lockdown, because by definition these are going to be divisive, and if you don’t fully fund them you are going to widen the divides in society.

‘The danger for me of underfunded regional lockdown is that it becomes an act of levelling down from a government which said it would do the opposite.’

Mr Burnham said he would tell people to follow the law if tougher restrictions were imposed.

But he added: ‘I do worry that if the Government is going to go down this route of imposing these punishing lockdowns on local areas, I think it will lose the public support that it will need to try and help us all as a country rise to the fight against this pandemic this winter.’

Mr Burnham’s deputy has argued that Greater Manchester could be spared Tier Three lockdown if the Government spent £14million per month shielding the most vulnerable people.

The leader of Manchester City Council Sir Richard Leese claimed that would be less than a fifth of the cost of the business closures that would happen under the restrictions, enabling businesses to stay open and the majority of people to avoid tougher restrictions.  

Sir Richard said: ‘Most people who test positive for the virus are not getting particularly ill. They are not the problem’, pointing out that those most at risk of hospitalisation were older people and those with existing underlying conditions, diabetes, obesity, high blood pressure or respiratory illnesses.

‘If this is the evidence, wouldn’t it be much better to have an effective shielding programme for those most at risk, rather than have a blanket business closure policy of dubious efficacy?’ 

The idea was backed by local Tory MPs. James Daly, the Tory MP for Bury North, said he was ‘extremely sympathetic’ to Sir Richard’s proposal.

Covid-19 will probably NEVER go away even with a vaccine, warns Patrick Vallance in another gloomy prediction 

Coronavirus will probably never disappear and a vaccine won’t stop it completely, according to Sir Patrick Vallance.

The chief scientific adviser, speaking to members of the House of Lords , said he thought the virus will one day become like flu and cause outbreaks each year.

He said ministers and experts should stop ‘over-promising’ and be realistic about the prospects of a vaccine and the likely timeline of one.

It is not likely that a jab will be completed before spring, Sir Patrick said, echoing his earlier warnings and those of his colleague Professor Chris Whitty that the Covid-19 fight will be a long one.

In the same meeting, Sir Patrick said he still believes a flu pandemic is the biggest threat to the UK and that his office has set up a second system in case there is another crisis before the coronavirus epidemic comes to an end.  

‘I think it’s unlikely that we will end up with a truly sterilising vaccine – i.e. something that completely stops infection – and it’s likely that the disease will circulate and be endemic,’ Sir Patrick said in a meeting of the Lords’ National Security Strategy Committee this afternoon.

‘That’s my best assessment and I think that’s the view of many people on SAGE that that’s a likely outcome.

‘Clearly, as management becomes better, as you get vaccination which will decrease the chance of infection and the severity of disease, or whatever the profile of the vaccines are, this then starts to look more like annual flu than anything else.

‘That may be the direction we end up going in.’

Chris Green, the Tory MP for Bolton West, said: ‘I think this is a good direction of travel. Let’s keep our hospitality running up to Christmas and support people at home if they are deemed vulnerable.’

William Wragg, the Tory MP for Hazel Grove, said: ‘I think Richard Leese’s proposal has merit and should be properly considered.’ 

Sir Graham Brady, MP for Altrincham and Sale West and chair of the powerful Tory 1922 committee, said: ‘The fundamental point about Tier 3 is the proposals don’t appear to have any evidential basis. 

‘There is no reason to think that closing some pubs and bars would have a significant impact on the spread on the virus.’

In his letter, Mr Jenrick said: ‘There are now more Covid-19 patients in Greater Manchester Hospitals than in the whole of the South West and South East combined. But, unfortunately, despite recognising the gravity of the situation, local leaders have been so far unwilling to take the action that is required to get this situation under control. 

‘I have written to local leaders this evening to make clear that if we cannot reach agreement by midday tomorrow then I must advise the Prime Minister that despite our best endeavours we’ve been unable to reach agreement. It’s not too late for local leaders to work with us to take action for the sake of the people of Greater Manchester.’ 

The letter, seen by MailOnline, is offering the area an extra £22m in financial support, equivalent to just £8 a head for the 2.8m population. 

It comes as official figures show that coronavirus infections are now falling in some of England’s biggest cities including Manchester, despite Mr Hancock’s threats to plunge many of them into Tier 3. 

In Nottingham the rolling weekly rate of cases peaked at 1,001.2 per 100,000 people for the seven days to October 8 – the highest in England – but since then the number has been falling, currently standing at 787.6.

Manchester’s current rate is 432.5, after peaking at 583.5 in the seven days to October 3, while in Sheffield it’s 396.7, down from a high of 500.3 in the week ending October 7. The rate in Newcastle stands at 371.5, down from 553.8 in the same period. 

Although some of the country’s major cities are seeing infections tumble, the towns and boroughs around them are starting to see the steep increases, which may explain the Government’s keenness to lockdown in more areas.   

Ireland will be plunged into one of the strictest lockdowns in Europe for six weeks from midnight on Wednesday even though no Covid-19 deaths have been recorded yesterday. Taoiseach Mícheal Martin said the Government was introducing Level 5 restrictions because 'the evidence of a potentially grave situation arising in the weeks ahead was now too strong'

Ireland will be plunged into one of the strictest lockdowns in Europe for six weeks from midnight on Wednesday even though no Covid-19 deaths have been recorded yesterday. Taoiseach Mícheal Martin said the Government was introducing Level 5 restrictions because ‘the evidence of a potentially grave situation arising in the weeks ahead was now too strong’

Deputy chief medical officer shorts circuit-breaker plans

 England’s deputy chief medical officer has slapped down calls for a national ‘circuit-breaker’ lockdown to wrestle down the surge in coronavirus cases.

Professor Jonathan Van-Tam said imposing harsh restrictions in low-infection areas would not curb spread of the disease in hotspots such as the North West.

Flanking Boris Johnson at a Downing Street press briefing tonight, he stressed that a circuit-breaker is not ‘consistent with the epidemiological picture’.

 The Prime Minister has resisted demands from Labour to follow Wales and Northern Ireland into a nationwide lockdown and is pressing ahead with a localised strategy.

Sage scientists also recommended ministers introduce a circuit-breaker to suppress the virus.

But Prof Van-Tam appeared to row in behind the PM this evening and, after showing a series of maps highlighting the varying rates of infection across the country, stressed the evidence did not support a blanket national approach.

He said: ‘We are trying to walk a very fine line between getting the virus under control in areas where it is out of control and incurring the minimum amount of economic damage in doing so. In areas where it is out of control hard measures are needed.

‘But do I think right now it is appropriate to insist on those similar hard measures in, for example, the South West of England or Kent, where levels of the disease are very, very much lower than in the North of England – the national firebreak you talked about? No, I don’t think that is right.

‘I don’t think that is consistent with the epidemiological picture that we are seeing.’

Imposing the harshest restrictions needed in areas such as Liverpool and Manchester on low-infection places such as Cornwall and East Anglia would be ‘inappropriate’, he added.

His comments appeared to break ranks with fellow Sage scientists who called on the Government to usher in a short circuit-breaker.

Minutes from a September 21 meeting showed that the group advised ministers to pursue such action.

It was seized upon by Sir Keir Starmer who called on the Government to impose a nationwide lockdown.

But his demands were flatly rejected by the PM, who is sticking with his tiered approach of bracketing regions into medium, high and very high alert levels.

However, tonight Prof Van-Tam, often referred to by his initials JVT, did warn that ‘we may have to push on the pedal a little harder’ to get the R rate under control.’ 

His concerns were echoed by Professor Stephen Powis, national medical director of NHS England, who said: ‘The last thing we want to do is eat into the capacity that we have in hospitals that we use to treat other conditions.’

Prof Powis did warn that Liverpool University Hospitals are expecting higher numbers of Covid patients by Wednesday than they had during the peak of the first wave in April.

And he said that at the current rate of growth in Manchester, the number of patients in hospital with Covid-19 could reach peak pandemic levels in a fortnight.

But he expressed concern for the rate of change in infections among the over-60s across the nation.

‘I really want to emphasise that it is the over-60s that really worries us most because these are the people who become severely ill with Covid-19, they are more likely to be admitted to hospital, if they are admitted to hospital they stay in hospital for longer and sadly they are more difficult to save,’ he said.

He said that infections among younger people are now penetrating those older age groups.

‘This means that the hospital admissions and the deaths linked to those cases are now baked in for the next two to three weeks,’ he added.

Prof Van-Tam continued: ‘Pretty much everywhere in England is now heating up to some extent and we are trying to walk a very fine line between getting the virus under control in areas where it is out of control and incurring the minimum amount of economic damage in doing so.

‘It is clear that in the areas that are out of control, hard measures are needed.’

But he said that insisting the same measures should be put in place in areas where levels of disease are much lower would be inappropriate.

Prof Van-Tam added: ‘We just can’t afford just to let our elderly die.

‘And we can’t afford to allow our NHS to be completely consumed by looking after Covid, so it can’t do its other businesses as usual.

‘So we’ll have to take as tough measures as are necessary to stop that.

‘We’re running now with the brakes partially on – and the R is 1.3 to 1.5, according to the latest estimates – so we can’t take the brake off on this, and we may have to push on the pedal a little harder to get it back under control.’

He said that he did expect death rates to ‘continue upwards’.

Prof Powis said: ‘There is variation around the country and that is reflected in the number of patients we see in hospital.

‘For example, there are more patients in hospital in Greater Manchester at the moment than there are in hospitals in the entire south east and south west of the country.’

He added: ‘We can all play a part, it’s for everybody in the public to comply with the measures to reduce the spread of the virus and that will then reduce hospital admissions.

‘It will benefit not only people with Covid but other patients who don’t have Covid because the last thing we want to do is eat into the capacity that we have in hospitals that we use to treat other conditions.’

Prof Powis said the number of patients in hospitals in Greater Manchester doubled in the last two weeks, and if it doubles again, hospital admissions in the region could be similar to the peak in April.

‘In two weeks’ time, we could well be seeing, at the current rate of rise, the sort of numbers of patients in Greater Manchester that we saw at the peak in April,’ he said. 

 

Manchester city is the only area in Greater Manchester seeing daily infections drop, but outbreaks in Trafford, Stockport and Oldham have also stabilised, Public Health England figures. And the rate at which cases are rising in the other nine boroughs has began to decelerate. 

For example, Bury was reporting an average 108 cases per day by October 12, up from 97 daily cases the week prior, an increase of 11 per cent. This is down significantly from the rise between September 28 and October 5, when daily cases jumped 33 per cent from 73 to 97.

A similar trend has played out in the other boroughs. In Wigan, the rolling seven day average number of daily cases is 205 – which is up nine per cent compared the seven days prior. For comparison, this figure almost doubled from September 28, when it was 99.3, to October 5’s 188.

Rochdale’s is currently recording 149 cases per day, up by 16 per cent the week before, when it was 128. The week-on-week rise then was much smaller than the increase between September 28 and October 5, when daily cases jumped 59 per cent from 86 to 128. 

Sheffield, Leeds and Nottingham are also being closely monitored and could be put into the higher level of restrictions.

If that happened it would see a further 13.1 million placed under the most restrictive coronavirus rules. 

No10 has tried bouncing Andy Burnham into accepting curbs which would crash Manchester’s economy by warning that the region’s intensive care beds could be overrun by mid-November. 

So far only Merseyside and Lancashire are in Tier 3, which requires the closure of pubs and other venues that public health officials claim contribute most to the spread of Covid-19. 

A further 5.3 million in Scotland and Northern Ireland are already under even more draconian restrictions, while 3.1 million in Wales will be placed under full lockdown from Friday night.   

In a joint statement, Mr Burnham and Sir Richard said they still hoped for a ‘positive outcome’. But at the same time they made clear their determination to hold out for a financial support package.

They said it was ‘surprising and disappointing’ that an earlier offer of a hardship fund to top up furlough payments and support the self-employed had bee taken ‘off the table’ by Health Secretary Matt Hancock.

‘This evening we have written to the Prime Minister reiterating our willingness to continue to work towards an agreement but reminding him that Greater Manchester has been in Tier 2 style restrictions for almost three months, and that this has taken a toll on people and businesses here,’ they said.

‘With this in mind, we do not believe it is in any way unreasonable for us to require better protection for our lowest-paid residents.’ 

The Prime Minister had previously said he wanted to gain the ‘consensus’ of local leaders before moving them into Tier 3.

Ministers fear public confidence in restrictions will be damaged if they do not get their support.

But after more than a week of talks, Whitehall sources last night indicated that the PM felt he had no choice but to take action in Greater Manchester to tackle the ‘health emergency’ there.

Mr Jenrick yesterday held ‘final discussions’ with local leaders, which ended in acrimony.

In a gloomy statement, a Government spokesman described the talks as ‘disappointing’, adding: ‘This is particularly concerning against the backdrop of rising cases and hospitalisations in Greater Manchester. We are carefully considering next steps.’

Projections produced by the Government yesterday suggested Greater Manchester’s hospitals risked being overwhelmed. 

‘Cases in Greater Manchester continue to rise,’ the Prime Minister’s official spokesman said. ‘Hospital admissions in Greater Manchester are doubling every nine days.’

The PM’s spokesman said that in the ‘best case scenario’ modelled by Government scientists, all free intensive care capacity would be used by October 28 and would pass the peak of the first wave by November 2.

The projections suggest Covid patients would take up the entire current intensive care capacity by November 8 and the entire surge capacity by November 12.

However, No 10 acknowledged that the figures do not include capacity in Nightingale hospitals.  

In a round of interviews, Mr Jenrick said: ‘I do think it is very clear that having now discussed this for well over a week this does now need to be brought to a conclusion.

‘I think everybody in Greater Manchester would agree with that. So, I am hopeful that either today, or tomorrow, we will reach a conclusion, one way or the other.’

Liverpool City Region received £30million in support for local businesses when it went into Tier Three, along with £14million for extra contact tracing capacity, and £7million when it entered Tier Two.

Adjusting the total package for the larger population in Manchester would give a figure of around £95million.

Although Mr Burnham has been pushing for furlough to be paid at 80 per cent rather than the two-thirds offered by the government, that is met centrally and separate from the bailouts. 

Projections produced by the Government suggested Manchester’s hospitals risked being overwhelmed.   

Currently the number of Covid-19 patients in intensive care is around 40 per cent of that seen at the peak of the first wave. 

But, assuming a 14-day doubling time – the ‘best case’ according to the SPI-M modelling group – all free intensive care capacity would be used by October 28 and would pass the peak of the first wave by November 2.

The projections suggest Covid patients would take up the entire current intensive care capacity by November 8 and the entire surge capacity by November 12.

Asked if that meant hospitals being overwhelmed, the spokesman said: ‘Yes, that’s the entire surge ICU capacity.’

Downing Street said discussions about coronavirus restrictions were also taking place with leaders from the North East, South Yorkshire, West Yorkshire and Nottinghamshire. 

It comes as Wales and Ireland were both plunged into lockdown in a desperate attempt to suppress Covid-19, with Irish premier Micheal Martin announcing plans to impose one of Europe’s toughest shutdowns for six weeks from midnight on Wednesday despite no new Covid-19 deaths being reported yesterday.  

 

Ireland has recorded a total of 49,962 cases, with another 1,283 infections added to that tally in the last 24 hours

Fatalities remain low with just three deaths recorded on Sunday, adding to a total of 1,852. There were no new deaths

Fatalities remain low with just three deaths recorded on Sunday, adding to a total of 1,852. There were no new deaths

Counties Donegal, Cavan and Monaghan are currently at Level 4, while the rest of the country is at Level 3

Counties Donegal, Cavan and Monaghan are currently at Level 4, while the rest of the country is at Level 3

Cabinet ministers have agreed to impose Level 5 restrictions which will force most businesses to close, prevent mass gatherings and limit free movement across the Republic until December 1.

Matt Hancock reveals that millions more people in South Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, Nottinghamshire, the North East and Teesside could be heading for Tier 3 lockdown with talks due to take place THIS WEEK 

Millions more people across the North of England face being plunged into the top Tier 3 lockdown this week, Matt Hancock revealed this afternoon. 

The Health Secretary said talks would take place with local leaders in South Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, Nottinghamshire, the North East and Teesside after deals were agreed for Liverpool and Lancashire.

But it came amid a continued stand-off with Greater Manchester. Ministers have sent an ultimatum to the area’s Labour mayor, Andy Burnham, and mutinous MPs that they must do a deal on today – or face being forced into the tougher curbs as early as tomorrow.

Housing Secretary Robert Jenrick warned that talks had gone on ‘too long’ and urged the region to accept a package of funding worth up to £100million.  

Downing Street attempted to pile pressure on the Mancunian rebels today by warning that the region’s hospitals are on track to be overwhelmed by October 28 unless the coronavirus outbreak is brought under control.

The region could use up all its intensive care capacity by that date, and demand will pass the previous peak by November 2, according to the latest estimates. Even the ‘surge’ fallback will be overrun four days later than that.

Downing Street highlighted the grim assessment, based on the SPI-M group’s ‘best case’ scenario that cases are doubling every 14 days, amid bitter wrangling with mayor Andy Burnham and local MPs over whether to impose ‘Tier Three’ lockdown. 

Mr Hancock told MPs in the Commons this afternoon:  ‘Following the successful introduction of measures in Liverpool and Lancashire, talks are continuing this afternoon led by (the Communities Secretary) with Greater Manchester, and this week further discussions are planned with South Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, Nottinghamshire, the North East and Teesside.’

Under the new measures, the public will be told to stay at home, with exercise permitted within a 5km radius of their home. 

Public gatherings except for groups of 10 at funerals and 25 at weddings will be banned, and only essential shops will be allowed to stay open. 

Construction will be permitted, but pubs, restaurants and cafes will only be able to provide takeaways and deliveries.   

The Taoiseach said the Government was introducing Level 5 restrictions for the entire country because ‘the evidence of a potentially grave situation arising in the weeks ahead was now too strong’.

Micheal Martin said schools and creches would remain open because ‘we cannot and will not allow our children and young people’s futures to be another victim of this disease’. He added: ‘They need their education.’ 

He also said the Government will be supporting efforts to suppress the virus with ‘enhanced financial supports’ for individuals and businesses, which would include improvements to the Pandemic Unemployment Payment and Employment Wage Subsidy Scheme. It will also be rolling out new mental health services.

Mr Martin added that social isolation and anxiety were very ‘real issues’ and therefore those living alone or parenting alone would be able to pair with another household as part of a ‘support bubble’. 

Ireland yesterday recorded 1,283 coronavirus cases, but fatalities remain low with just three deaths recorded yesterday. No new deaths were reported. 

Of the new cases, 235 were in Dublin, 232 in Cork, 60 in Galway, 47 in Limerick, 47 in Kerry, and the remaining 410 cases were spread across 21 counties. As of 2pm this afternoon, 298 people with Covid-19 were in hospitals, including 34 people in intensive care units. 

Public health officials yesterday recommended moving to Level 5 for six weeks. It was the second time in a fortnight they had advised the Government to move to the highest level of measures.

The Government did not heed the previous advice. Instead they placed the entire country into Level 3 restrictions. Currently counties Donegal, Cavan and Monaghan are at Level 4, while the rest of the country is at Level 3.

Political leaders received briefings from health officials in Dublin on Saturday about their concerns over the recent rapid spread of the virus. The Cabinet sub-committee met this morning to discuss Nphet’s latest advice.

The leaders of the Government parties also met to discuss the final details of the plan ahead of the Cabinet meeting on Monday evening.

Earlier, Transport Minister Eamon Ryan indicated that any new restrictions would not be introduced immediately saying ‘you don’t just flick a switch’.

Asked about a timeline for introducing new measures as he arrived for a sub-Cabinet meeting on Monday, he said: ‘We’ll decide that.

‘I think one of the lessons previously is you don’t just flick a switch, you have to give people a wee bit of notice. But Cabinet will have to decide that.’

Green Party leader Mr Ryan said he hoped the decisions reached would give clarity to the public.

He said: ‘I hope there can be because that’s the important part of it. The Tanaiste put it right the other day, you need a series of indicators, but that will be for Cabinet to decide. ‘

Pubs curfew should be brought forward to 6pm not 10pm says Jonathan Van-Tam

England’s deputy chief medical officer has called for the nation’s 10pm pub curfew to be brought forward to 6pm in an effort to reduce the increasing rates of transmission, according to reports.

Professor Jonathan Van-Tam admitted there was little evidence supporting the benefits of a 10pm curfew and said he would prefer a closing time of 6pm instead as he spoke to Greater Manchester MPs during a virtual meeting regarding the city’s refusal to enter Tier 3 restrictions.

When asked if the 10pm curfew reduced the rates of coronavirus transmission, the professor said: ‘Not really. I’d prefer 6pm, or even earlier.’

However the Government advisor also admitted there was no evidence that shutting pubs down completely under a Tier 3 lockdown would control the virus, according to The Daily Telegraph.

His comments come as scores of revellers today braved the winter chill as they enjoyed a night out in the capital’s expanded beer gardens- just a day after London entered Tier Two lockdown.

Pub-goers swapped a night in at home to sit outside the numerous bars in central London’s Soho and get round curbs putting a stop to multiple households sitting inside pubs and restaurants.

He also defended the length of time Government has taken to act on Nphet’s advice to move to level five restrictions for six weeks, which were delivered to Health Minster Stephen Donnelly on Thursday.

‘I think it’s getting things right. It’s complicated, there’s a huge amount of implications for people’s everyday lives.

‘I think it’s appropriate that we try and get the arrangements and the details right in that time.’

Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald said that social supports must be put in place.

She also called for the cuts to the Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP) to be fully restored.

Ms McDonald told RTE’s Morning Ireland that changes to the restrictions must be ‘balanced’ and clearly communicated because people were going to ‘really struggle’ and would be ‘worried sick’ by any new restrictions. 

The National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) and Chief Medical Officer Tony Holohan last week urged the government to bring in the Level 5 restrictions for a six week period.

Counties Donegal, Cavan and Monaghan are at Level 4, while the rest of the country is at Level 3. 

On Sunday, it was reported that a new lockdown would last for four weeks, but it has since emerged that ministers are being asked to back six weeks. 

Gaelic games, horse and greyhound racing are still permitted behind closed doors, under the Level 5 rules.

Non-contact sports training for children and young people can continue outdoors but only in pods of 15. Funerals will be limited to 10 people.  

Meanwhile, Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford said that everyone in Wales will be ordered to ‘stay at home’ unless they are critical workers or are unable to work from home. 

The Labour chief warned failure to act now would mean ‘more people will die’ as he said households will be banned from mixing indoors and outdoors while exercise outside will be allowed but it must ‘begin and end at home’.

Primary schools will reopen after half-term next week but secondaries will only reopen years seven and eight, and for pupils doing exams.

The decision to impose a ‘short and deep’ lockdown until November 9, which echoes national demands made by Sir Keir Starmer and wipes out Halloween and Bonfire Night, has sparked a furious political backlash after statistics suggested Wales has a lower coronavirus infection rate than England.  

The ‘firebreak’ step was criticised by Welsh Tories, who said it was dooming Wales to an endless cycle of two-week lockdowns while Conservative MPs in Westminster said it was a ‘blunt instrument’ and ‘closing down the whole of Wales is disproportionate to the level of risk in some parts of the country’.

They also lashed out at Mr Drakeford, accusing him of ‘small man syndrome’, with one MP telling MailOnline: ‘You have got somebody who is the head of what is essentially smaller than the West Midlands but where they have got a mayor, Wales has a first minister. 

‘He is trying to show he is an equal to Boris Johnson. He wants to be regarded as his equal but he is not.’

However, the move has heaped pressure on Mr Johnson who has been desperately resisting the option in England despite backing from his own SAGE experts. 

Lockdown’s lethal toll laid bare: 50,000 children see surgery postponed, treatments for strokes plunge by almost 50%, and one in FIVE people were hit with depression in just one month as devastating effect of coronavirus restrictions are revealed 

A devastating picture of the impact of the lockdown on the nation’s health and wellbeing is today revealed in an exclusive analysis that brings together more than 130 studies.

The Daily Mail audit – based on research published by medical journals, leading academics and charities – shows that the damage inflicted by the lockdown extends into every sphere of health, including cancer, heart disease, addiction, the welfare of children, domestic violence and mental illness.

Experts say the analysis suggests that even after the pandemic ends, it will take years for the NHS to catch up with backlogs – and it will be too late for tens of thousands of patients.

Doctors and politicians called on the Government to ensure all health services are protected if the spread of Covid-19 continues. The audit of 132 documents shows:

  • Delays in treatment are set to cause a 20 per cent rise in deaths among newly diagnosed cancer patients in England – 6,270 excess deaths this year;
  • Treatment for strokes fell by 45 per cent during lockdown and there were more than 2,000 excess deaths in from heart disease;
  • More than 50,000 operations for children were cancelled;
  • Organ transplants fell by two thirds, with the number of those who died on the transplant waiting list almost doubling;
  • Total waiting lists for routine orthopaedic and eye operations are at record levels;
  • Calls to child abuse helplines rocketed;
  • As rates of depression and anxiety doubled, thousands of recovering alcoholics have relapsed.

At least 25,000 more people have died at home during the pandemic in England and Wales because they were unable to – or chose not to – go to hospital, a surge of 43.8 per cent on normal levels.

And 85,400 people died in private homes rather than in hospitals or care homes between March 20, when lockdown started, and September 11, an Office for National Statistics report revealed, the equivalent of around 100 extra deaths a day.

Prince William, speaking to Liverpool business owners yesterday, days after the city was forced into Tier Three virus restrictions, revealed his fears of a ‘mental health catastrophe’ if Britain’s entertainment industry goes bust due to Covid-19.

Cancer patients set to suffer for years

The toll of lockdown on cancer patients will be felt for years, researchers say.

If a tumour is spotted early, it can often be dealt with quickly. But if it spreads there is often nothing a doctor can do.

The suspension of cancer screenings during lockdown is likely to lead to a surge of cases caught too late.

GP appointments also plummeted and between April and August urgent cancer referrals fell by 350,000 in England, according to Cancer Research UK.

Treatment was also put on hold – with chemotherapy procedures falling by between 45 per cent and 66 per cent in April alone.

Academics at UCL calculated that within a year 6,270 extra Britons will have died of cancer in England owing to the pandemic. Hospitals are bracing themselves for a leap in cancer referrals which could add to the impact of a second wave. 

Boris Johnson is poised to place Greater Manchester into the highest level of lockdown restrictions today, despite opposition from local politicians. Talks on whether the region should enter the ‘very high risk’ Tier Three ended in deadlock again.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock yesterday said talks were continuing with local leaders in South Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, Nottinghamshire, Teesside and the North East. It means another ten million Britons could face the toughest restrictions by the end of this week.

Wales announced it was to re-enter what First Minister Mark Drakeford called a ‘time-limited firebreak’. He described it as ‘a short, sharp, shock to turn back the clock, slow down the virus and buy us more time’.

More than 43,700 Britons have died from coronavirus, and thousands more would have died had there been no lockdown in March. But, as the country faces tighter restrictions, the focus is now turning to the indirect casualties of those measures.

Professor Karol Sikora, a cancer specialist and head of Buckingham Medical School, said the findings of the Mail’s audit were a ‘stunning demonstration of lockdowns’ harmful effects across society’.

He added: ‘If lockdown were a drug, you’d need to consider the side effects, and yet we’re not – even though we seem to be diving headlong into another one.

‘People sometimes claim it’s a question of health versus the economy, but it’s not – it’s health versus health.’ Professor Sikora supports last week’s Great Barrington Declaration, now signed by more than 10,700 scientists and 29,700 doctors worldwide, calling on governments to adopt an approach of ‘focused protection’, shielding the vulnerable while opening up the economy.

Sunetra Gupta, one of the Declaration’s authors and an Oxford University epidemiologist, said: ‘These papers and data are starting to build the evidence to show that the collateral damage has been immense – and will continue with extreme measures such as lockdowns. The time has surely come to take their full costs measures into account.’

Children’s operations dangerously delayed

Huge numbers of child patients were unable to have operations during lockdown, figures show.

A total of 50,000 children had surgery postponed from March to May.

The figures were revealed by the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health.

It warned in a report in July: ‘There is an urgent requirement to re-establish elective children’s surgical services.’ It stressed there was an ‘enormous excess of children…waiting far longer than the recommended 16-week limit for a procedure.’

Meanwhile, a British Paediatric Surveillance Unit survey showed that 32 per cent of experts had seen children whose treatment was delayed by the end of April.

In nine cases where the child died ‘delayed presentation was considered a contributing factor’.

Professor Allyson Pollock, a public health expert at Newcastle University, said: ‘I went along with the previous lockdown, but now the question is, did its harms outweigh the benefits, especially for children and young people?

‘I’m very uncertain about the evidence for the benefits of further blanket measures. They have not been evaluated, and may do real harm. Without very significant investment and expanded public service capacity, the damage will never be repaired. Even with it, it’s going to take years.’

The analysis shows that cancer patients have been especially hard hit and the full cost may not become clear for several years.

A British Medical Journal study found that during lockdown, endoscopies for bowel cancer averaged just 12 per cent of normal levels, and at one point were down to 5 per cent. Delays in bowel cancer diagnosis are likely to lead to between 650 and 2,250 excess deaths in England, according to another BMJ paper. A Lancet study found delays for breast, lung and oesophageal cancer patients caused by the lockdown were likely to cause a further 2,000 excess deaths.

A University College London study for the British Medical Journal found that hospital admissions for chemotherapy fell by up to 66 per cent in April, while urgent referrals for early cancer diagnosis were down by up to 89 per cent. It concluded that this would lead to 6,270 extra deaths in the first year.

According to another BMJ study, there were nearly 2,100 excess deaths in England from heart attacks and strokes, an increase of 8 per cent, while the numbers treated for strokes fell by 45 per cent. The Health Foundation said during the lockdown, accident and emergency visits in England fell by more than half, from more than 80,000 a week to just over 40,000.

Another Lancet paper discovered the average number of organ transplants performed every day fell from 11.6 to 3.1. The total who died while waiting for a transplant increased from 47 in the same period last year to 87 during the three months of lockdown.

How ‘stay at home’ led to fatal heart attacks

Thousands of Britons died of heart attacks and strokes at home in the first months of the pandemic.

Experts believe the Government’s ‘stay-at-home’ message scared the sick into avoiding hospital even when they desperately needed it.

The toll from cardiovascular causes rose by 2,085 in England and Wales from March to June, analysis by the University of Leeds found. Professor Chris Gale, a cardiologist at the university, said the deaths ‘should not have happened’, adding: ‘The message to stay at home was taken literally.

‘The sad irony is that heart attack services remained fully operational… during the peak of the pandemic.’

The British Heart Foundation found that even among under-65s there were 800 more deaths from heart attacks and strokes than average from March to July.

Waiting lists for elective procedures rocketed. The numbers needing orthopaedic operations such as knee and hip replacements rose by more than a third to some 700,000. More than 600,000 people are now waiting for eye procedures for conditions such as cataracts.

According to the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health, 50,000 children in England had scheduled operations cancelled. The impacts on mental health and addiction to drugs and alcohol were also severe.

The Office of National Statistics found that rates of depression across all ages and genders in England roughly doubled, from one in ten to one in five.

Another paper in the British Journal of Psychiatry said 18 per cent of UK adults reported having suicidal thoughts in the first month of the lockdown. Another suggested: ‘There is a high probability that suicide rates will increase.’

The charity Action on Addiction found that patients recovering from drug or alcohol addiction were likely to suffer a relapse – almost 40 per cent of the total.

There was a surge in calls to the NSPCC emergency helpline, from an average of 5,593 a week before the lockdown to 8,287 in May.

Calls to the domestic abuse charity Refuge were also almost 50 per cent higher in April than the average before the pandemic.

Leading politicians called for the Government to protect health services if restrictions are tightened further.

Jeremy Hunt, chairman of the Commons health committee, told the Mail that the mistakes of the first lockdown must not be repeated.

‘The last lockdown was devastating for cancer sufferers and we now know led to thousands of avoidable deaths,’ the former health secretary said.

‘Whatever course of action ministers opt for now, it is simply unconscionable for the NHS to become a Covid-only service: urgent treatment must continue at all costs.’

Labour MP John Spellar said: ‘The collapse of the economy can kill people, delays in diagnosis and treatment kills people. I don’t think Matt Hancock has got the right balance.’

The analysis was started by a senior doctor at a busy NHS hospital who has worked in both Covid and non-Covid wards.

Concerned that she was seeing many patients who were much more ill than she would have expected when they arrived in hospital, she decided to collate a database to present the studies of lockdowns’ impacts in an easily accessible form.

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