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The Delta Covid variant prompted a deadly third wave starting months ago, with cases rising above 40,000 as England approached “Freedom Day”. They have since dropped off, which may have relieved Government officials but ministers still have to address a creeping increase in the number of daily deaths.
Why are Covid deaths rising?
Where Covid cases have shown a marked decrease over the last week, deaths and hospitalisations have not.
The latest data shows positive Covid tests have decreased by 30.8 percent (102,000) since July 20, at 23,511 today.
But in the same period, deaths have risen by more than 40 percent (138) to 131 today, while hospitalisations rise in kind by 24.9 percent (1,167) to 945 today.
READ MORE: British woman ‘caught Covid’ in quarantine
These figures come amid a growing vaccine rate, with 88 percent of English adults given one dose and 70.8 percent a second.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) states the latest death figures are the highest since April.
Northwest England is the worst affected region, with 71 deaths in the week ending July 16.
The area, followed by the northeast – on 24 deaths during the same period – serves as a regional hotspot for Covid cases and hospital admissions.
Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme, he said the impact of Freedom Day and relaxation of restrictions has not yet emerged in the data.
Professor Ferguson said people should stay cautious in the face of a “potential increase in contact rates” as schools return and the weather gets cooler in September.
Experts have so far recommended people continue to wear masks and social distance where possible to reduce potential infections.
He added the country is not “completely out of the woods” but acknowledged the “fundamental” changes caused by dropping cases.
The professor also invoked the vaccine benefits, as they have managed to fracture the link between infections and deaths.
His ultimate prediction is that the worst of the wave could conclude “by late September or October time”.
At this point, he said, the country will hopefully “be looking back at most of the pandemic.”
The disease will remain, and some people will die, but by then, the UK should have left most cases behind, the professor said.
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